Colombia turbulence continues

While some prefer to use partial figures from press releases, here at Setty’s Notebook we don’t let speed beat out completeness. Heck, we don’t let speed beat out anything — the next post is about figures released two months ago.

Anyway, the numbers published today by Colombia’s Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos shows that the high volatility in that country’s oil production continued in March. This time, it was a lurch to the upside in oil output, while natural gas sales fell to a 2-year low. Hard to know what that’s all about without looking at individual field data — gas sales can fall because the gas is being reinjected, or because fields are producing more oil per cubic meter of gas, or because production is falling. And the higher ratio of oil:gas is generally a good thing, as oil is selling for much more money than gas these days.

4 thoughts on “Colombia turbulence continues

  1. Veneco en Bogotá

    Would you graph the average output per calendar day per month and check if the instability is still there ?

    I believe it will be largely gone.

    No growth for the last 6 months of course.

    1. sapitosetty Post author

      Veneco: This graph shows output per day. It was just coincidence that February had lower output and fewer days.
      westslope: There’s nothing misleading about this. I am trying to show the volatility. By coincidence, both Mcf of gas and bbl/day of oil fit on the same graph. If you want a different chart, do it and send it over, I’ll post it. I saw that PRE.to is renting an LNG export ship. That’s pretty interesting. As far as domestic consumption, I think you need to go to slightly more expensive sources.

  2. westslope

    Due to the units chosen and the common axis used to plot them, that graph is misleading. To get around that, convert natural gas volumes and oil volumes to BTUs or weight volumes by relative operating netbacks or some similar factor.

    Elsewhere, there have been good natural gas discoveries as of late. Pacific Rubiales is planning a floating LNG plant designed to export liquid natural gas (LNG).

    Now that you mention it, it would be interesting to see a time series of Colombian domestic natural gas _consumption_ and how that breaks out for various industrial uses including reinjection which AFAIK is not common practice in Colombia. Water is reinjected into oil reservoirs to maintain pressure and flow rates.

  3. westslope

    setty: Just because the two time series fit on the same graph without adjustment by using the same units on the y-axis doesn’t mean that the representation is informative.

    Another way of solving the problem is to index both time series of volumes to 100.

    I don’t have the data. You can index to 100 or translate Mcf of natural gas into barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). But if you prefer, send a spreadsheet of the data to me.

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