Oil prices must be too low

Rafael Ramirez is saying again that Venezuela is ready to cut of oil shipments to the USA in the case of a U.S. military attack on Venezuela. Suffice to say that this isn’t going to happen, and further analysis of the “what if”s would be silly. This is Ramirez trying to talk up the price of crude. Anyone who trades on this stuff deserves to lose money.

Speaking of hot air: there’s a reason why I’ve been ignoring the supposed spat between Colombia and Venezuela.

9 thoughts on “Oil prices must be too low

  1. Joel

    Yes, do tell… Pleeeeze???? Got up early and brain is not functioning correctly. I need to read something insightful to get it on track.

  2. sapitosetty Post author

    lgg, Joel: It is boring. It’s pretty well established that there is FARC in Venezuela. Uribe’s specifics were vaguely interesting, though they would have been much more interesting with just a bit more transparency — like allowing international media into the press conference where the intelligence was shown.

    But the cutoff in diplomacy? The violent talk? It’s boring beyond words. The Colombians understand that they’re not welcome to go after terrorists on Venezuelan soil. And there are probably fewer people in Venezuela who support military escalation against Colombia than there are Colombians. There are 2 or 3 million Colombians in Venezuela, and it’s hard to find even a die-hard Chavista who thinks a military fight with Colombia is worthwhile. So nothing is going to happen. It’s a bunch of theater that has more to do with internal politics in Bogotá than with the border itself. Everything will be fine soon. This is the nth in a series of diplomatic blowups that almost always turn nicey nice in a matter of months. (The exception, so far, being Israel.)

    You know that Chavez’s expulsion and then re-acceptance of the U.S. ambassador was the first time such a thing had happened in U.S. history?

    The guy plays with diplomacy as if he were running the University of California-Santa Cruz student council, rather than a country. If you treat it seriously, you’ll go insane.

    1. Kepler

      Well, most of the times yes. I agree the Colombia-Venezuela thing won’t escalate and Chávez won’t stop oil deliveries to the US.

      It is gorilla on this side of the river beating chest, gorilla on the other side doing the same thing over and over.

      Still, the actions of a president acting as head of campus student council can escalate into something very nasty in Venezuela.
      I saw the first 1992 coup coming months in advance. It could have got worse. Venezuela’s situation can evolve into a civil war…not this year but perhaps in two or so if we don’t start to take off pressure.

      1. Steve

        Kepler: (a) Who’s “we”? (b) Without pressure from somewhere, Chavez will die in office of old age. Is that what you’re suggesting?

        1. Kepler

          Sorry, I did not explain that well.
          I mean we Venezuelans who want something different.

          Chávez is trying to make things explode and promote violence if things turn against him. We need to increase peaceful pressure on the government but “disarm” the violent groups of Chavismo by engaging with the population around them and letting them see most people – in Vargas and Calabozo, in Maturín and Puerto Cabello- won’t remain silent. We can only do that if we focus now on getting out of Eastern Caracas and Northern Valencia.
          But we have to do this showing the only ones who could benefit from violence are the boliburgueses.

  3. Mamarracho

    A friend just got back from Colombia via bus. The bus was not able to cross into San Antonio due to a red shirt demo so they decided to enter via Ureña. Well, on the Colombian side absolutely nothing happening. No troops, no inordinate show of public force. Well the bus cruised into Venezuela with no customs, no checkpoint. They were stopped finally just before San Cristobal by a couple of police who simply asked the males for their Cédulas.

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