A few posts ago, I upset a Venezuelan reader by suggesting that we probably don’t have to worry about massive electricity outages in 2010, what with rain arriving and Guri Dam’s water level starting to rise. Since then, nationwide power use and hydropower generation both jumped to 1-month highs, the streams feeding Guri settled back to well below their normal rainy-season levels, Planta Centro turbine 1 went back out of service after only one day, and Guri’s water levels fell to 248.66 m above sea level, 13 cm below the prior bottom April 16. So, worry away.
However, collapse won’t happen this year, unless the rains just quit. Water levels have declined 8.66 cm a day for last 3 days. That works out to a meter every 11.5 days, and we have about 7 meters to go before things really fall apart nationwide. Even if the decline speeds up, we have a couple months of slack in there. The problem comes at the end of the rainy season, if we still have only a couple months of slack.